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 Post subject: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 03 Jul 2016, 09:39 

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Now that the UK has voted for Brexit, by an advisory referendum result, it seems incredulous that the political establishment is actually considering triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Incredulous because of the very real prospects that it could lead to an economic crisis.

Thoughts on this please.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 03 Jul 2016, 09:55 

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Please note I not interested in discussing the referendum as the result is a given. More interested in discussing the economic impact. By this, I hope that we will stick concrete facts rather than expectations. Promises of jam tomorrow is an expectation. Thank you.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 03 Jul 2016, 14:56 
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Albus wrote:
Please note I not interested in discussing the referendum as the result is a given. More interested in discussing the economic impact. By this, I hope that we will stick concrete facts rather than expectations. Promises of jam tomorrow is an expectation. Thank you.

Given that it is a new untried direction, there will be unknowns. Thus, until there is a bit of history/experience of it, what have we got to go on except expectations?



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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 03 Jul 2016, 15:30 
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Besoeker wrote:
Albus wrote:
Please note I not interested in discussing the referendum as the result is a given. More interested in discussing the economic impact. By this, I hope that we will stick concrete facts rather than expectations. Promises of jam tomorrow is an expectation. Thank you.

Given that it is a new untried direction, there will be unknowns. Thus, until there is a bit of history/experience of it, what have we got to go on except expectations?


I agree with Albus re promises of jam tomorrow. It seems the Brexit mob really have no concrete plan.



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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 03 Jul 2016, 17:13 

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Admin,

I do agree. It is amazing when you think that both sides made extensive use of fear, uncertainty, doubt (FUD). Brexiteers using the immigrant, EU army, comparing the EU to Nazism, in particular expert advice, etc. Whilst, on the Remain side there was an element of over doing the points with project fear.

Yet, the lack of a plan on post Brexit is just negligent. Particularly, as any structural economic change requires a lot of time to work through the economy with resulting unemployment. Further, the removal of the UK from a common market in which 44% of its trade takes place is a huge shock to the system. It just can't be done immediately, if ever.

It's not surprising that Article 50 has not been invoked. In itself this is an admission that pulling away from the EU is fraught with dire economic consequences. If it was easy, with no adverse affects, or very minor adverse affects, it would have been invoked the next day post the referendum result. Instead, we had the implosion in the official opposition party and a rudderless government.

A week on and the UK is still within the EU. Public opinion appears to be showing signs of Bregret and it appears as if there is stalemate. The government, making further admissions, is now not working towards a budget surplus, the Bank of England has had to print more money and loosen monetary policy. Meanwhile, the consumer, in a state of shock, is not spending as much as prior to the result nor is industry pushing ahead with some contracts.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 12 Jul 2016, 15:42 

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Now that Theresa Mary May has set herself up to accept the poison chalice left behind from David Cameron's legacy, it will be interesting to see how she gets on with Brexit and how she handles the market mayhem (no pun intended) that will almost inevitably spring forth from invoking Article 50.

The truth is that the British public, in particular, the Brexiteers are living aptly under what can only be described as "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds". In fact, Andrew Tobias (1841) had he still been alive would include the whole event as an additional chapter.

So, here we are faced with a popularist retro nationalist outcome which has no bearing in the modern world and still nobody is clear on how to square the circle. The misinformation campaign by these retro nationalists, more suited to a fancy dress party or pantomine have stolen the show. Leaving Mayhem.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 12 Jul 2016, 16:09 
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Albus wrote:
Now that Theresa Mary May has set herself up to accept the poison chalice left behind from David Cameron's legacy, it will be interesting to see how she gets on with Brexit and how she handles the market mayhem (no pun intended) that will almost inevitably spring forth from invoking Article 50.

The truth is that the British public, in particular, the Brexiteers are living aptly under what can only be described as "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds". In fact, Andrew Tobias (1841) had he still been alive would include the whole event as an additional chapter.

So, here we are faced with a popularist retro nationalist outcome which has no bearing in the modern world and still nobody is clear on how to square the circle. The misinformation campaign by these retro nationalists, more suited to a fancy dress party or pantomine have stolen the show. Leaving Mayhem.


The entire problem can be explained by too much democracy. You can not leave some decision making in the hands of what are ignorant people, after being manipulated by liars and knaves.

We elect governments to govern ... that is to say, represent us. There should have been a vote in the House.

Now the alcoholic Farage has jumped ship, leaving an almighty mess ... just because Cameron gambled and lost. He didn't need to promise a referendum but Ukip had him scared for a moment.



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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 17 Jul 2016, 08:48 

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Today, we experience a strange call by Australia for a Brexit free trade deal. Strange because one already exists within the EU. This is made up to be a good event and the several other calls for a free trade deal. Whilst, there is no doubt that the UK can make numerous free trade deals across the world, it remains to be seen on what precise terms and on whom the comparative terms of trade favour. Clearly, a Brexit free trade deal with China or India cannot favour little England. To begin with no chance on competing with labour costs. Further, can England never be bullied by China when it boils down to, for instance, dumping steel.

Unfortunately, this Brexit experimentation will fall on the British people.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 21 Jul 2016, 06:55 

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Everyone is aware that the campaign to give £350 million weekly to the NHS on leaving the EU was a lie. There was not much truth to the Leave campaign not even controlling migration.

Though currently its been estimated that Brexit talk has cost the country £3.5 billion weekly.

The economy is going through self destructive times. The only reason it is not being felt as one major shock is that the failure to invoke Article 50 effectively means the UK hasn't left the EU.

The UK still has access to the common market. Therefore, Brexit has does not mean Brexit so far. What Brexit actually means has become a puzzle verging on farce.

The negative uncertainty is adversely affecting the general economy. This would be nothing compared to pulling out completely. To the degree Brexit continues to be farcical the negative impact declines.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 21 Jul 2016, 08:33 
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So very true, Albus. The fact that we are still in the EU keeps the wheels turning and all this talk of preparing for new trade deals is imaginary. As you say, a lot of these countries already have trade deals with the EU and are not floating about waiting for the British exit in two years. Why should they?

What Brexit has produced is uncertainty and this rattles the markets, investment and so on. But then the markets are volatile by nature.

Boris Johnson will make an enormous balls-up in the Foreign Office which should end any hopes of a future political career. He is already being confronted by all those he has insulted and so he can only offer more waffle and daftness. His lies during the Brexit campaign are being challenged anew by leaders in Europe and elsewhere and he deserved to be strung up outside to dry. Having said that, people in this country will sooner rather than later realise the enormous mistake they made voting to leave. Too late? It's never too late.

Europe needs to sort out this migration mess first. Eastern European countries are now suffering from a skilled workforce deficit as so many have made the exodus westward. This is what happens in a global free market economic system. No regulation or controls. Free movement of labour within Europe should only be permitted after all the member states have economic equilibrium and wages are levelled throughout the continent. Even within the group of Eastern states there are different wage systems that are unequal to an astonishing degree. Europe needs its own elected government to correct these anomalies. But you can't do it while we are all victims of the debt slavery imposed by a Goldman Sachs manipulated European Central Bank and the predatory IMF.



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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 24 Jul 2016, 22:19 

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Agreed Admin. Yet, today we have an example of what it means to take back control of our borders with a colossal traffic jam at Dover. The migration crisis can only really be effectively tackled at the European level. The myth is that each country can do it on its own. Migrants fleeing war or some form of destructive forces back home will continue to seek a flight to safety. Without European coordination beggar thy neighbour takes hold and migrants get dumped across borders. To curtail the migrant crisis we as Europeans have to promote peace and stability in the nations the migrants are fleeing from and not by being neo colonialists.


The reason for eastern European States being given rapid access to the EU was a general fear of instability post Soviet Union. It was an error. There should have been more cohesion before allowing full access. Cohesion continues and as eastern States begin to prosper the need to migrate diminishes.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 25 Jul 2016, 08:00 
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Albus wrote:
Agreed Admin. Yet, today we have an example of what it means to take back control of our borders with a colossal traffic jam at Dover. The migration crisis can only really be effectively tackled at the European level. The myth is that each country can do it on its own. Migrants fleeing war or some form of destructive forces back home will continue to seek a flight to safety. Without European coordination beggar thy neighbour takes hold and migrants get dumped across borders. To curtail the migrant crisis we as Europeans have to promote peace and stability in the nations the migrants are fleeing from and not by being neo colonialists.
The reason for eastern European States being given rapid access to the EU was a general fear of instability post Soviet Union. It was an error. There should have been more cohesion before allowing full access. Cohesion continues and as eastern States begin to prosper the need to migrate diminishes.

I was driving from Ramsgate to Folkestone on Saturday for a caricaturing session at a wedding reception. I got caught up in the Dover tailback but decided to turn back to a roundabout with a road to the north side of Dover town centre. Through back streets, I found the old Folkestone Road, a B-road little used these days. I got to the venue within minutes of my start-up time. Those heading to the docks had no such choice.

The massive traffic jam was caused by the French and little to do with our side of the Channel or control of our borders. The problem of war refugees can be easily resolved. Stop interfering in other countries and end the wars. All of this current migration problem was created by Bush and Blair. Starting a war should be a crime under international law.



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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 26 Jul 2016, 01:14 

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I heard that May and Merkel recently stated that they were not expecting to activate Article 50 until 2017. Given that the Tory party are funded in large part by international finance, coupled with the progressive edging back of the date and the recent legal opinions about the "advisory" nature of the referendum, it looks like we're due for quite a dose of political theatre.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 26 Jul 2016, 07:56 

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There is even admissions to the date to trigger being 2020 or never at all as we venture into attempts by May for a Brexit fudge.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 29 Jul 2016, 10:15 

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If you happened to have read the Daily Express yesterday you'd think we were in a economic boom. The headline was based on pre Brexit data. Post Brexit data appears to be showing clear signs of a shocked economy with data starting to mirror the 1980s recession. There is even talk of a return to stagflation.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 29 Jul 2016, 22:17 

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Albus, that hardly surprises me. "The markets" are quite obviously soft power tools of a financial elite seeking domination over the planet. Just look at what happened to the Rouble after Putin dared to oppose U.S. expansionism in Ukraine. The matter of Nixon proclaiming that the Chilean economy should be made to "scream", then Pinochet doing away with Allende springs to mind, too.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 29 Jul 2016, 22:32 

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The problem you have is that it requires strong leadership to oppose. I doubt that is what we have at present nor do I think it is forthcoming.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2016, 18:51 

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The economic statistics are becoming more stark. Certainly some experts believe that recession is now foregone conclusion.

Yet, apart from the economy getting squeezed you can't also not notice how Brexiteers are falling into some form of existential crises.

Most who voted, though not all, did so due to promises of a Brexit boom and amazing free trade deals with the rest of the world. The list of lies is extraordinary. Now that these lies are amounting to empty promises those that believed them wholeheartedly are faced with reality. That reality must hit them with the same force as an existential crisis. A loss of self or certainty. It is not nice to see people like this. I blame the politicians.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 08 Aug 2016, 15:10 
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Most voted to leave due to the issue of immigration. It was the Great Xenophobic Vote.

No one had a clue about promised trade deals. It was and is still very fuzzy.

The deals they talked about were largely based on existing deals with the EU.



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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - the impending economic crisis.
PostPosted: 17 Sep 2016, 11:53 

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Albus wrote:
Now that the UK has voted for Brexit, by an advisory referendum result, it seems incredulous that the political establishment is actually considering triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Incredulous because of the very real prospects that it could lead to an economic crisis.

Thoughts on this please.


LOL.

I find it incredulous that the electorate didn't riot in the streets when John Major without the moral or legal right to do so signed the Maastricht treaty and in doing so signed away British sovereignty to a cabal of unelected failed politicians who rule from behind closed doors in of all places, Belgium.

This economic crisis you speak of...



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